From today’s Wall Street Journal Editorial Page
The only thing clear from all the surveys is that Mr. Daggett isn’t going to be governor. That puts pressure on his voters not to play spoiler and shift their allegiance to another candidate. Quinnipiac finds that 38% of Mr. Daggett’s voters say they’re prepared to change their minds. Given the profile of the average Daggett voter, Mr. Christie can probably count on taking three-fifths of those who abandon the independent.
That makes the race highly volatile. Mr. Christie, who started with a strong lead, has been dragged down by Mr. Corzine’s relentless negative advertising — almost all of it financed from his personal fortune. But Mr. Christie has also been hurt by his failure to come up with clear plans for dealing with the state’s No. 1 issue: sky-high property taxes. Only 12% of voters, including a quarter of Republicans, believe he will be able to cut those taxes if elected governor.