News outlets and lobbyists across the state are raising the alarm that New Jersey is facing a dire teacher shortage. Gov. Phil Murphy says we must “recognize the impact that teacher shortages in our state and across the nation will have on our economy, the arts and our civil society.” NJEA says teachers are on “the endangered species list.”  Mark Weber for NJ Policy Perspective says, “if New Jersey does not act soon, there will not be enough qualified candidates to replace teachers leaving the profession.”

But is that true? 

Sure, in some cases. Long before Covid, local districts have struggled to find candidates for STEM, bilingual education, and special education openings (which is why programs like this are so important). We struggle to recruit and retain teachers of color who are essential to the academic success of more and more of New Jersey’s children. 

But, based on new numbers from the US Title 2 database, right now 30% more college students are enrolled in teacher preparation programs compared to 2016 and the percentage of those who complete those programs is up by 9% over the last three years, reports Chad Aldeman. (The exceptions are Utah, Massachusetts, Alaska, Nevada and Wyoming, which have seen declines in enrollment and completion.)

So let’s look at that database, where the U.S. Education Department. collects information on trends in higher education. As of October 2022. New Jersey has 11,858 students enrolled in teacher preparation programs and 2,880 program completers. How does that compare with prior years? In 2018 we had 10,556 students enrolled and in 2019 we had 10,091.

In other words, this year enrollment in New Jersey teacher preparation programs is up 13% compared to 2018-2019.

But what about students who complete the programs? 

There’s been no drop in New Jersey. Within the last three years completion numbers hover between 2,800 and 3,000. 

Interestingly, the number of teachers who can pass tests required for teaching licenses in NJ is down, from a 95% passing rate in 2018 to an 89% passing rate in 2021. But that may be a relic from the days before December 2022 when Gov. Murphy eliminated a particularly onerous test called the EdTPA.

So what’s the bottom line? Here’s Aldeman: “media coverage and the general perception of the teaching profession are out of step with the actual data.” 

https://twitter.com/ChadAldeman/status/1646494998269919234

There are complicating factors: with all the emergency federal aid, school districts across the country have hired more teachers, a sure bet for lay-offs when that well runs dry in November 2024; Michael Petrilli, says “school districts will have no choice but to lay off a bunch of people.” (The National Council on Teacher Quality urges states like NJ, which relies solely on seniority when determining lay-offs, to consider teacher effectiveness when making lay-off decisions.) At the same time, in New Jersey at least, K-12 enrollment is dropping; we should expect a 3.8% decline by 2028. Birth rates are declining nationally with New Jersey’s birth rate ranking as the 14th lowest among states.

So is there really a teacher shortage? You decide.