According to a new analysis by Georgetown University’s Edunomics Lab, U.S. enrollment in K-12 public schools will drop by 5 percent between 2022-2031 and another 7 percent by 2041. In New Jersey, the drop from 2022-2031 will be about 8 percent. Only Idaho will see an increase. Meanwhile schools across America will have to make budget cuts and close schools because they’ve reached unsustainable staffing levels (350,000 positions added despite declines in student enrollment, courtesy of federal emergency Covid funds that dried up this past fall). In addition, says Edunomics, “districts should not expect a windfall from their legislature” due to increasingly tight state budgets.

Enrollment declines (2022 to 2031) will force downsizing for years to come:

Over the last five years per pupil costs have risen sharply. In school year 2019-20 New Jersey’s cost per pupil was  $16,599. In school year 2023-2024 NJ’s cost per pupil was $20,154. That is a 21.4 percent increase.

What happens now? How do we best protect student learning in the face of declining revenue?

Edunomics says that states that use seniority-based lay-off systems (last-in, first-out) will end up eliminating stronger teachers and cause the most damage to higher-poverty schools as well as statewide efforts to diversify the teaching cadre. Unchecked spending will lead to fiscal unsustainability and, remember, you can’t count on the state for bail-outs. Gallop just reported that only 24 percent of American adults are satisfied with the state of public education, it’s lowest point in the history of polling.

What are the best ways for districts to rebuild trust and protect student learning?

Here are recommendations from Edunomics:

Redirect funds from:

• Smaller classes
• Specialists, interventionists, teacher trainers
• Layered (overlapping) programs
• All teachers get same Professional Development, same PD days.
• Across the board % raises, costly benefits

Spend on “smarter” on things like:

• More pay for strongest teachers to take on more students
• Tech-tools that augment learning and extend strong teachers
• Larger classes + summer school or tutoring where needed
• Pay bumps tied to teacher attendance, high poverty placement
• Fewer programs (focusing on those with evidence of success)