This was first published by the Star-Ledger Editorial Board.

It will take time to attain a full understanding of what went wrong for New Jersey’s Republicans Tuesday night, but we know this much: The narrative they spouted in the 2023 election cycle has already found its rightful place in the dustbin of political history.

In the end, voters didn’t agree that transgender kids and books on gender identity were the millstones of our collective morality.

They didn’t believe that Phil Murphy masterminded an evil plot to hoard gas stoves and kill whales.

Voters didn’t get worked up by crime-wave hysterics that were disproven by actual crime data.

They didn’t think any of the divisive culture wars – some exported directly from MAGA Central — was worth waging.

In the end, Republicans lost six seats in the Legislature because their candidates didn’t play to the party’s traditional strength that it could be trusted to cut the cost of government, as it did under Chris Christie. Instead of playing their best card, they repudiated their duty to lead the discussion about fiscal responsibility, which plays a critical role in our politics.

“Here’s my theory: People don’t love Phil Murphy or Joe Biden. But people just don’t trust us, either,” said Sen. Jon Bramnick, a Union County Republican who won re-election by 10 points in a district that Biden won by 17. “So unless they trust you, it doesn’t matter whether you’re right on the issues. They won’t turn the keys of the palace over to us if we govern like our rhetoric.

“Think about how we talk to swing voters throughout this state. You’re not going to win these districts just by talking to the far right of your party, and by throwing out these mean-spirited sound bites. And that’s how too many of these people campaigned.”

Let Mike DuHaime, the Republican strategist and Star-Ledger columnist, cut to the chase: “Beyond very red states,” he said, “Trump fealty and imitation is a loser in New Jersey and nationally.”

Yet that’s what we heard most often from Republican candidates.

Instead of having an intelligent discussion on the environment, they attacked offshore wind, mocked subsidies for green appliances, and invented whale death fantasies without offering climate solutions of their own. Instead of addressing rampant learning loss in our schools, they declared war on a Christie-era policy of privacy rights for kids who identify as transgender and moved to ban books. Instead of examining the root causes of crime in our cities and suburbs, they reflexively assumed it was related to bail reform, because it’s always easier to blame poor people.

New Jersey students who did not feel great about being used as an election issue may take some comfort in knowing it didn’t work.

— Rebovich Institute (@RebovichInst) November 8, 2023

Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin believed Tuesday’s results reflected a choice of “solutions over cynicism, solutions over misinformation, solutions over division. In the face of constant bad faith attacks from the State Republicans, Democrats throughout New Jersey ran positive races.”

The first half of that assessment seems plausible, but it’s unclear whether anyone can call this an affirmation of Democrats.

Micah Rasmussen, who runs the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider, believes Republican failure was largely tactical, mostly in its inability to get their base to vote by mail and its failure to spend what it takes to penetrate a deep blue region. But he also knows New Jerseyans often recognize MAGA as the beating heart of the GOP circus.

“We have some of the most highly educated voters in the nation,” Rasmussen said. “Were (Republican candidates) seen as reluctant or not credible cultural warriors? Or is New Jersey just more live-and-let-live than they gave us credit for? I’d sure like to think it’s that.”

Democratic strategist Julie Roginsky, another Star-Ledger columnist, believes the overarching lesson is clear: “Republicans should laser focus on quality-of-life issues. That’s it,” she said. “They can win the governorship in two years if they stow the MAGA culture wars and focus on taxes. It’s not a hard message. (Jack) Ciattarelli would have won if he didn’t turn people off with the gay curriculum stuff in ‘21.”

DuHaime agreed: “The GOP can beat Democrats on fiscal issues,” he said. “But the moment Republicans look intolerant and judgmental, we risk losing moderates. And the Trump-dominated GOP that feels like they need to own the libs looks more focused on hating the other side than on solutions.”

Bramnick, who unlike some colleagues is undaunted by complexity, said his campaign’s 15 mailers didn’t mention a single culture war issue. One focused on the pandemic-fueled crime spike – “mostly because even Democratic mayors thought we should revisit some bail reform issues,” he said – but he anticipated the missteps others would take.

“These hot-button issues, the ones that consultants said would motivate the base? All they did was turn off the swing voters,” Bramnick said.

These are all good lessons for Republicans to take back to Trenton. But New Jersey can have a healthier and more pluralistic government only if they retain them.