While New Jersey residents favor Democratic over Republican candidates in the upcoming race for the state legislature, Republican attacks based on parental control of schools cut into those margins substantially, potentially putting Democratic control of the General Assembly at risk. According to the latest results from the FDU Poll, asking residents about the parental control issue makes them six points more likely to say that they’ll support the Republican candidate in the upcoming election in their district, and nine points less likely to support the Democratic candidate.

“Republican candidates are using these attacks because they work,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at FDU, and the director of the poll. “If voters are thinking about parental control of schools when they go to the ballot box, Democrats are in real trouble.”

In November, all 80 seats in the New Jersey General Assembly and the 40 seats in the State Senate will be up for election. In the 2021 elections, Republicans gained six seats in the General Assembly, and even though that ballot also featured a gubernatorial election, only 40 percent of eligible voters cast a ballot. In the 2019 race, the last time an election was headlined by state legislative elections, turnout was just 27 percent.

Overall, 37 percent of NJ residents who say that they’re likely to vote in the upcoming election (or already have cast a ballot) say that they’ll vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, while 29 percent say that they’ll vote for the Republican, and the remainder (27 percent) aren’t sure.

But asking about the parental control issue changes these figures substantially. In order to test the effectiveness of Republican messaging on parental control of schools, half of respondents were asked about their views on the issue before being asked if they were likely to vote in the upcoming election, and which candidate they’d support. A quarter of residents – 24 percent – say that parents should be able to choose what schools do and do not teach. About the same number – 22 percent – say that parents should not really influence curricula. The majority (52 percent) say that parents should have some control over what’s taught in schools. Democrats are more likely than other partisan groups to say that parents should have little control; Republicans are more likely to say that parents should have complete control.

Priming respondents to think about the parental control issue with this question doesn’t significantly change the reported likelihood of voting, but it does change who voters say that they’ll support, especially among political independents. In the unprimed condition – when the parental control question is asked after vote choice – independents prefer Democratic candidates over Republicans by 20 points (28 to 8, with 42 percent undecided). When the parental control question is asked first, independents prefer Republicans by 16 points (24 to 8, with 63 percent undecided). The priming has only marginal effects on self-identified Republicans and Democrats.

The net effect is that when NJ voters aren’t asked about parental control of schools, they say that they’ll vote for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate by a 16 point margin (42 to 26); when they’re primed to think about it, they still prefer Democrats – but only by one point, 33 to 32, a difference that’s not statistically significant.

“This issue is doing a lot to move independents into the Republican column,” said Cassino. “The question, though, is whether those independent voters can be mobilized in what’s normally a very low turnout election.”

The news isn’t all bad for Democrats in the state. Even as Republican candidates have made attacks against Democratic Governor Phil Murphy a major part of their campaigns, his job approval has remained stable since the FDU Poll last measured it in May, with 44 percent of residents (including 73 percent of Democrats) saying that they approve of the job he’s doing as governor, up from the 40 percent approval he had a year ago.