What is going on in this graph at the bottom that juxtaposes the number of New Jersey educators with the number of students enrolled in NJ school districts?

This: Over the last decade, staffing is up while enrollment is down, according to data collected by Georgetown University’s Edunomics Lab. New Jersey isn’t an outlier here because the trend of increased staffing and decreased student population is happening across the country, fueled by outsized federal grants (called ESSER) to each state after the pandemic. That money was intended to ameliorate learning loss suffered by students locked out of school, a short-term infusion never intended to be baked into district payrolls.

During 2021-2024, the time period when the federal government distributed that ESSER money (total: about $2.6 billion to NJ), NJ school districts hired about 10,000 additional staff members, represented by the red line on the graph. By 2024 we employed over 249,000 educators.

But here’s the rub or, rather, two: first, we have what analysts call “the fiscal cliff” because the federal infusions dried up last year, leaving districts cash-strapped. Second, over the last decade enrollment across NJ schools is down by over 100,000 students. Since enrollment factors into our state funding formula, many districts take another budgetary hit.

Edunomics leaders Marguerite Roza and Katherine Silberstein write in the 74, “districts are paying for more employees than they can afford. ​​To make matters worse, during the same time period, districts have been losing students. That means that state and local dollars (which tend to be driven by enrollment counts) are unlikely to make up the gap.”

What’s next?

“Right-sizing,” i.e., districts across the country will be laying off staff members because fewer students need fewer teachers and less money means less to spend on payroll.

The bad news? Some teachers will lose their jobs and districts will be facing tough math to balance budgets.

The good news? With the exception of fields STEM, special education, and multilingual learners, the teacher shortage is over.