Forty minutes after polls closed last night, the A.P. declared Mikie Sherrill the winner of New Jersey’s Democratic primary, well ahead of the other five candidates. She currently has 34% of the vote; in second and third place is Ras Baraka with 20% and Steve Fulop with 16%. NJ Education Association President Sean Spiller? He is at 11%, in fifth place, slightly above Steve Sweeney.

This is no surprise: Sherrill has been leading in all the polls while Spiller’s chances seemed improbable from the start. Heck, Matt Friedman of Politico notes that even in Montclair, his ritzy hometown, “the early results I saw last night were terrible for Spiller, whose tumultuous four years as mayor (he decided not to seek reelection) doesn’t appear to have endeared him to the town’s voters.” 

Which leaves me wondering, what was NJEA thinking? They spent over $40 million on Spiller’s campaign, a source of bafflement to many observers like Joey Fox of NJ Globe who notes Spiller’s/NJEA’s only strategy “revolved around tens of millions in spending from a super PAC funded by his own union.” Did NJEA honchos honestly think Spiller would win? Or is there another explanation for forcing NJEA members to, as Jeff Edelstein of the Trentonian says (h/t Mike Lilley), “bankroll the $40 Million Man,” a sum he calculates would amount to a $340 rebate for each teacher.

I’m going to presume that NJEA leaders, including Spiller, are intelligent people and have an endgame that would justify why they’ve spent the last year and a half dedicating their effort and (teachers’!)resources to achieving an unlikely outcome. Here are five possible benefits they imagine will accrue to NJEA members and NJ schoolchildren.

Increased Influence: Spiller’s capture of 84,000 votes, while less than half NJEA’s membership, is still significant. In the next administration, assuming it’s Sherrill (not a safe assumption), Spiller will be a top dog, either as the governor’s special advisor or head of the Education Department. Is really going to go back to Wayne to be a science teacher after earning $400K a year as NJEA president?

There is precedent for this. Gov. Murphy hired NJEA’s Associate Director of Government Relations, Debra Cornavaca, as his Deputy Chief of Staff. Cozy, isn’t it? Maybe NJEA imagines things will get even cozier. After all, Murphy acceded to almost all of NJEA’s demands, from freezing charter school growth to eliminating student growth from teacher evaluations to lowering standards. Now, with Spiller either in the cabinet or the Governor’s Office, NJEA can reach even higher (or lower, depending on your point of view).

Pay No Attention to the Cash Behind the Curtain: During the campaign Spiller painted himself as one of the unwashed masses, like Homer Simpson with brains. On his website he says he and his family struggled to find housing and “I know what it’s like to have a full-time job but still worry about paying the bills.” NJEA believed this would fly with the electorate.

Seriously? Word got around quickly (praise local journos) that Spiller makes almost $400K a year as NJEA president and somehow managed to surpass his housing struggles and buy a home in a town where they go for a $1 million each. Also, it was widely reported that his campaign got so few regular-folk contributions that he never qualified for matching funds or a spot on the debate stage. 

 NJ Spotlight notes that “nearly half [of total campaign spending], or $46 million, was money given by the New Jersey Education Association through its political committee to two other groups backing its president Sean Spiller since 2022.”

Meanwhile, NJEA says this morning,“ Spiller finished much stronger than expected by pundits who had dismissed his people-powered campaign from the beginning.”

Uh huh.

Where Everyone Knows Your Name: When Spiller started campaigning (way before anyone else) NJ mailboxes were stuffed with flyers, highways with billboards, TV with NJEA commercials. Before that he was only well-known (and not well-regarded) in Montclair. Now? His name is on everyone’s lips! According to SurveyUSA, 65% of potential voters have heard of NJEA’s guy! Wait until 2029! 

Could be.

Get NJEA Execs Some Ambien STAT:: While Spiller didn’t describe himself as progressive as Ras Baraka or Steve Fulop, he ran clearly to the left of Sherrill and other contenders. But he didn’t have to: NJEA’s embrace of woke liturgy proliferates its brand, from drag queen storytime to dividing everyone into oppressed or oppressor. 

NJEA thought this would help Spiller win.

But woke was cool until it wasn’t because parents, regardless of party affiliation, want schools to (this is from a national teachers union, no less) “reject the culture war that has recently saturated education policy and instead want to see political leaders prioritize what kids need to succeed in school: strong fundamental academic skills and safe and welcoming school environments.” (For more, see reactions to Philadelphia’s current world history curriculum which teaches students “new horizons of industry lead to greed and exploitation” or the “furious backlash” to San Francisco’s “grading for equity” program, which was quickly tossed.)

Yet NJEA’s website lives in the past, trumpeting how “we are building and growing a community of activists committed to advancing social justice policies in public education,” defaming the state’s popular charter school sector, and describing its commitment to “dismantling unjust systems.”

Actually, NJ voters seem to want to address the reality that 64% of our sixth graders can’t do math on grade level.

Any other guesses on why NJEA leaders decided to go all-in on a can’t-win strategy? Feel free to contribute in the comments.