With all the conversation about consolidating school districts, it seems worthwhile to try to get a sense of what that would actually look like for New Jersey students and families. What would be the upsides and downsides for students as enrollment drops across the country and creates what the NY Times calls a “crisis,” with inevitable budget cuts and school closures? (See graph below.) Can we manage this right-sizing in such a way that we increase opportunities for students and lessen the burden on taxpayers?

For this thought experiment  I chose three school districts in Monmouth County, all within three square miles: Asbury Park, Neptune Township, and Neptune City. Then I compared them with a district, Pemberton Public Schools in Burlington, that  has an approximate combined enrollment of those three districts (with a higher percentage of students eligible for free/reduced lunch, a measure of poverty).  

This is not science, just informed speculation. But as Gov. Sherrill and Commissioner Lily Laux express a commitment to consolidation (despite an apparent weakening of resolve from the Legislature ) and as powerful special interests gear up for a fight, it seems worthwhile to think concretely.

First off, all three Monmouth districts are shrinking, a harbinger of what is to come for many other districts. The Coaster (no link) reports Neptune Township maintains facilities for 6,500 students but only 3,411 are enrolled; the seven school buildings have a vacancy rate of 51%. Asbury Park’s enrollment drops every year and is currently down to 1,400 students. The entirety of Neptune City Public Schools is one K-8 building with 247 students.

If NJ consolidated all three districts into one district — let’s call it Neptune-Asbury Park– the total enrollment would be 5,058 students. In other words, they could all fit comfortably within the Neptune Township campus, freeing up land for other uses (like greatly-needed affordable housing in Asbury Park).

Let’s not dance around this: student outcomes in all three districts are terrible. In Neptune City only 19% of students are proficient in reading and only 16% in math. Asbury Park is far worse.* There is a chronic absenteeism rate of 31%: in other words, almost a third of all students miss more than 10% of school days.

Neptune Township has higher student outcomes: 35% of students are proficient in reading and 20% are proficient in math yet that’s not good enough for families who can send their children elsewhere (and many do, given the enormous drop in enrollment. Note to district: Maybe stop recommending elementary school teachers use the discredited Lucy Calkins balanced literacy program.) 

For other measures of academic underperformance and lack of opportunity, we can look at the availability of higher level coursework, like AP classes, and Career Technical Education (CTE). According to the DOE, Asbury Park does not offer a single AP course and 0.4% of students earn a work-based credential. Neptune Township has 9 AP courses and 16% of students enroll in them. One percent of students earned a work-based credential. (Neptune City is K-8.)

What does this all cost taxpayers?

The combined annual operating costs for all three districts is about $170 million. The annual cost per pupil is  $33,850 at Asbury Park, $25,370 per pupil in Neptune City, and $26,375 per pupil in Neptune Borough. 

Now let’s compare this scenario with Pemberton Public Schools, which I chose just because Burlington County’s cost of living is closer to Monmouth than other 5,000-student NJ districts.

Pemberton has 9 buildings for its students, compared with the total of 12 for Neptune City, Neptune Township, and Asbury Park. Its student outcomes aren’t stellar, with 29% proficient in reading and 19% on grade level in math, but they are dealing with a more impoverished population. And the size of enrollment is likely responsible for the many more opportunities available for students. Currently 23% are enrolled in one or more of the 14 AP courses offered, 7.4% are in dual enrollment programs, and 47% are taking courses in CTE. 

Oh, and while the cost per pupil is $25,019, slightly lower than our imagined Neptune-Asbury merger but in the ballpark, the annual operating budget for next year will be $112 million, 33% less than the combined budgets of the three Monmouth schools.

Most of this is just common sense: put more students in a district and you’ll have enough kids interested in, say, an AP course in Computer Science than a far smaller cohort. While Neptune City only has a half-time Business Administrator and a superintendent (who also serves as principal), Asbury Park and Neptune Boro have full-time BA’s and  their own superintendents. (Asbury Park is paying for three.**) All three have full-time Directors of Special Services. Of course you’ll save some money but you’ll spend more on transportation. Plus there are all kinds of vagaries with mergers: the teachers would get paid according to the most generous salary guides, tenure rules would send some of the best new teachers packing, you’d anticipate protests galore from NJEA and school boards, so that 33% decrease in operating costs is too optimistic.  There would be ineffable losses of individual district culture, mascots, traditions, etc. 

Can New Jersey, addicted to budget-busting local control, pull this sort of consolidation off? Not if it is voluntary, that’s for sure. Yet, as enrollment drops here by 8% and school costs become unsustainable, change is gonna come and and families will be best served if our elected leaders are proactive rather than passive. Yes, the incentive is do nothing. But at what cost for kids?

*Regular readers know the drill. The DOE’s School Performance Reports on the district are unilluminating because it redacts percentages below 10% with an asterisk; Asbury Park has a lot of asterisks. We do know this: 6.7% of fifth graders can read at grade level and 7.7% can do math at grade level.  

** Asbury Park has three superintendents on the payroll: Rashawn Adams (put on administrative leave and being paid about $200K through June, Mark Gerbino (out on medical leave and retiring in June, earning about $220K), and newly-appointed interim Edwin Ruiz. I don’t know his salary but he is the 5th superintendent of Asbury Park since 2018.