According to former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Republicans Jack Ciattarelli and Bill Spadea are underrated, Democrats Sean Spiller and Steve Fulop are overrated, and the frontrunner in the Democratic primary this June is Mikie Sherrill.

For the Republicans it all comes down to the benediction of President Donald Trump.

That’s the gist of Insider NJ Fred Snowflack’s interview with Christie, whose message is a little insider-y. For those of us outside the bubble of the Garden State’s gubernatorial politics, here are annotations of Christie view of who is ahead among Democratic candidates, with a nod to Republicans at the end.

NJEA President Sean Spiller: Christie told Snowflack,

“‘It’s amazing, the gall of the teachers’ union is, even now, breathtaking to me.’  He said Phil Murphy has given the NJEA everything it wants and now the union thinks it can take the governor’s seat. But he said that has no chance of happening.”

This description of Murphy’s largesse towards NJEA is factually accurate. As NJ Ed Report has reported, while running for his first term Gov. Murphy appeared at the NJEA Convention with a list of promises: eliminating state standardized PARCC annual testing; changing regulations in the Christie-negotiated teacher tenure bill so student outcomes on tests have no impact on teacher evaluations; enacting a moratorium on new charter school approvals. Murphy didn’t even endorse then-Senate President Steve Sweeney because NJEA was backing a Trump-loving, climate change-denying, immigration foe to exact revenge for Sweeney’s pension reform bill.

Christie doesn’t mention Spiller’s $35 million piggy bank, courtesy of NJ teachers’ union dues, which is shelved in a dark money PAC and will surely have some impact. Also, never underestimate NJEA’s prowess in getting-out-the-vote. On the other hand, Spiller hasn’t raised enough money in grassroots contributions to qualify for matching funding or the Globe’s final primary debate on May 20th. We’ll see.

Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop: Christie says the Jersey City mayor “has too many ties to developers, which will eventually sink him.”

One real estate developer Christie may be referring to is the Australian wealth management firm Dixon Advisory, which filed for bankruptcy three years ago. According to the Jersey City Times, Dixon was a “significant player in the Jersey City real estate market and a major supporter of Mayor Steven Fulop.” The bankruptcy came at a time when a  class action lawsuit accused Dixon of “deceptive and misleading conduct and failing to act in the best interests of its clients.” Dixon Advisory had been investing heavily in Hudson County and, upon election, Fulop “immediately ingratiated himself with Dixon by cancelling the nearly completed revaluation of properties that threatened to raise taxes on many of Dixon’s buildings.”

In addition, Bloomberg reports that Dixon gave Fulop sweet deals on his house, his Rhode Island beach property, and a $2.4 million estate that never went on the market. And there are other relationships with developers: Fulop was “the subject of a federal investigation probing the political operative’s business dealings with developers and builders.”

Is that enough to sink him?

Former Senate President Steve Sweeney: Christie comments on his ” good working relationship” with Sweeney but discounts his odds of winning: “Sweeney’s problem is geography,” says Christie. “South Jersey just does not have enough people and voting strength.”

South Jersey is truly the poor stepchild when compared to the political powerhouse of North Jersey, especially when you throw in the travails of powerbroker George Norcross (who once dominated electoral politics) and former Senator Bob Menendez. Yet as excessive wokeness acquires a taint of toxicity, Sweeney may stand out as a true moderate, possibly more attractive to New Jersey voters worn down by faux progressivism.

Newark Mayor Ras Baraka: Christie joins other sages who call Baraka the “most underrated candidate in the race.” He shouldn’t be discounted, says Christie, because he is “the most ideologically liberal.”

That’s true. In addition, Baraka is a gifted orator who is unafraid to say that New Jersey, contrary to statements by Murphy and Spiller, is not the best school system in the country. In an interview, Baraka said, “while [NJ’s education system] may be #1 for white and Asian students, if you  compare New Jersey’s Hispanic students to students in other states, we’re #9 and for Black students we’re #17.” Also, in a recent Farleigh Dickinson poll, Baraka had the highest favorability rating among all candidates.

Yet Baraka is quintessentially liberal in an increasingly moderate state. And even at Essex County’s Democratic Committee convention (Newark’s home base), Baraka lost to Sherrill, who got 60% of the vote from delegates.

U.S. Representative Mikie Sherrill: Christie sees her as the Democratic frontrunner, a view shared by many. But, he says, “she has to stop being Congresswoman Sherrill and act more like a governor.” She should, he counsels, start by telling people “precisely what she wants to do and not answer questions by talking about bills she has proposed in the House [because] the public doesn’t care about that.”

Sherrill has a great backstory (naval pilot, federal prosecutor) but is hampered by the redesign of ballots (a cause championed by Sen. Andy Kim), which levels down the preferences of county bosses. Charles Stile digs deep on how the loss of the old county lines and the current environment render Sherrill’s message “milquetoast.” Is her frontrunner status a mirage, he asks?

However he writes,

“She not only has a compelling biography, but she is also the only woman in the race, which gives her an outspoken advantage among the suburban women Democrats in a primary — and swing voters in the general — who are appalled and angered by the Trump MAGA storm that has taken place over the past few months.”

U.S. Representative Josh Gottheimer: In Christie’s view Gottheimer is “acting too much like a general election candidate in talking about cutting costs, lowering taxes and bringing back paper bags.” He wondered how that’s going over with a primary electorate that tends to be pretty liberal.

Indeed, Gottheimer is a thoroughly centrist Democrat, a member of Congress’s bipartisan Problem Solver’s Caucus, who announced his campaign by saying, “living in Jersey has become too damn expensive. We pay too much in taxes, too much to live. It’s time for a reboot.” Like Sherrill, he may be less attractive to the progressive wing of the NJ Democratic Party.

Former NJ Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli and radio host Bill Spadea: The context for Christie’s view is in 2021 Murphy only beat Ciattarelli, his Republican opponent, by three points. “We should have won that race,” he told Snowflack, adding that Republicans “underperformed that year” and a three-point loss was nothing to write home about. He has no prediction about whether Ciattarelli or Spadea will win the Republican primary and says it all comes down to Trump’s endorsement.

Here is Snowflack:

“Chris Christie assumes that every night before bedtime Jack Ciattarelli and Bill Spadea drop to their knees and pray: “Jesus, let it be me.” What the men seek is an endorsement from Donald Trump.”

Christie believes the majority of an increasing number of NJ Republican voters will “follow Trump’s lead,” which both candidates seem to know because they’ve been haunting the President’s golf courses hoping for an endorsement. (He appears to dismiss the odds of moderate Republican Jon Bramnick winning the primary.)

How good a prognosticator is Christie? We’ll find out in June.