Donald Trump may have a resort in Bedminster but he doesn’t own the MAGA vibe in New Jersey. Instead he shares it with Roger Leon, superintendent of Newark Public Schools, who, according to yesterday’s press release from the district, casts the opening of Nelson Mandela Elementary School in the Central Ward as his legacy, the ninth new building opened under his “visionary leadership.” Board president Hasani Council agreed: “Our vision is clear – the Newark Board of Education is not about closing doors; rather, it is about opening them, expanding opportunities, and championing excellence for every student.”

Indeed, the Newark Public Schools’ long range facilities plan calls for building eight new schools and the 2020-2030 strategic plan anticipates “increasing enrollment and opening more schools in the new educational ecosystem.” In March, Leon called for a one billion dollar bond to pay for new construction (even though, for instance,  Malcolm X Shabazz High School is only 28% full). 

Yet is that optimism about enrollment justified by the facts on the ground? Is this really what’s best for the Newark district students and families, not to mention local and state taxpayers who support the district’s annual $1.3 billion budget?

There are two parts to the answer: First, there is Leon’s thirst for property acquisition, which he justifies by claims of “increasing enrollment,” even though, according to the state database, total Newark enrollment for this year is 41,430 students, slightly up from last year but showing no evidence of the need for eight or nine new buildings. Second, the district is failing to approach the “milestones” delineated in its strategic plan of raising student achievement.

Last week Tapinto looked more closely at enrollment trends, especially in the new schools opened over the last couple of years. No one doubts that district facilities in the East Ward are crowded, but the newly-opened buildings are in other parts of the city. According to the data from the DOE, the newest schools show “a decline in almost every grade level.”

Example, via Tapinto:

“At Sir Isaac Newton [Elementary School], 22 Kindergartners started in 2020, but only 18 stayed to become first graders in 2021. Of those 18 first graders, only 12 remained as second graders as of the end of last school year (June 2023). Similarly, the 210 freshmen that started at Newark Vocational High School in 2020 shrank to a class of 161 juniors by this spring, a decline of 23% in the last two years.” 

Are those decreases in enrollment significant? Yes: the drop from at Sir Isaac Newton pre-k to kindergarten is 34%; the drop from kindergarten to first grade is 24%. Currently there are a total of eight students enrolled in second grade. And, according to the DOE database, 34% of students at this school are chronically absent.  Certainly, there is a national epidemic of absenteeism post-COVID but this school’s numbers are way out of line with the rest of the state, where where the rate is 18%.

(Also worth noting: according to the deed executed by the Schools Development Authority, which pays for traditional schools in Abbott/SDA districts, taxpayers shelled out $15.5 million for the purchase of this building even though most of it remains unused:

Why are students leaving Leon’s new schools or, if enrolled, not showing up? 

Maybe it has something to do with student outcomes.

In the 2020-2030 strategic plan, Leon lays out his vision. “Far into the future, when our descendants look back on this document,” he writes, “it will be part of the record of this historic turning point for the public schools of the city of Newark. Just as The Federalist Papers and The U.S. Constitution did for our fledgling nation in 1787, this strategic plan reflects the best thinking of our community’s leaders.” 

How will we know if NPS has reached that “historic turning point”? The plan smartly lists a series of benchmarks that include increases in literacy rates, increases in the percentage of students passing Algebra 1, increases in the  percentage of students enrolled in AP courses, and increases in high school graduation rates.  How are  Newark district students doing?

With allowances for NJ’s (unnecessarily) long COVID school closures, which the New York Times just labeled “the most damaging disruption in the history of American education,” let’s see where we are:

• In 2018 28% of Newark third-graders read at grade level. Now 19% of Newark third-graders read on grade level. 

• In 2018 21% of Newark district students passed Algebra 1; in 2022 16% passed Algebra 1.

• In 2018, 19.2% of Newark high school students enrolled in AP classes. In 2022 19.5% of Newark high school students enrolled in AP classes. 

• The on-time graduation rate increased by 10 points (although the state DOE lowered graduation standards). 

How about the new schools opened by Leon?

• At Newark Vocational School, which Leon opened in 2020 promising to  “provide its students with a rigorous curriculum that will prepare them for a path toward college and career readiness,” 14.3% of students are proficient in reading and less than 10% are proficient in math. (The state redacts data when the number is less than 10%.)

• At the High School of Fashion and Design, which opened in 2021, 33% of students are proficient in reading and less than 10% are proficient in math. 

• At the High School of Data Science, also opened in 2021, 25% of students are proficient in reading and 17.6% are proficient in math. (This is a STEM school.)

There is no information available for Sir Isaac Newton or Michelle Obama because those schools only go through second grade and the state doesn’t test schools until the end of third grade.

Newark district denies the declines in enrollment. In an email to Tapinto, spokeswoman Nancy Deering wrote, “while public school enrollment is at an all-time decline in many school systems across the nation, the Newark Public Schools continue to experience increases in our enrollment.” 

But numbers don’t lie. Just do the math.