Many states have been fearful about the prospect pf teacher shortages and New Jersey is no exception. Gov. Phil Murphy said we must “recognize the impact that teacher shortages in our state and across the nation will have on our economy, the arts and our civil society.” NJEA said teachers are on “the endangered species list.”  Mark Weber for NJ Policy Perspective wrote, “if New Jersey does not act soon, there will not be enough qualified candidates to replace teachers leaving the profession.”

Turns out that’s not true. In fact, according to a new analysis by Chad Aldeman, while a combination of speculation and bad data has perpetuated the teacher retirement narrative nationally, “retirement rates across the largest teacher pension plans in the country have remained relatively stable over the course of the pandemic.” By taking data from teacher pension plan actuarial reports “pre-pandemic” (an average of 2017-2019) and comparing it to data from more current pension plan actuarial reports, he calculates that retirement rates are relatively stable. There was a bit of a dip in 2020, an uptick in 2021, but “no clear pattern.”

How about the rate of teacher retirements in New Jersey?

Pre-pandemic the rate was 4.5%. In 2022 in was 4.3%. In other words, teacher retirement rates are down, as they are in most large states.

Also, this year enrollment in New Jersey teacher preparation programs is up 13% compared to 2018-2019

We’re in no danger of a teacher shortage, except in specialties like special education and STEM, which predates the pandemic.

To be fair, some of the shortage-angst has been due to districts hiring more teachers than they had in the past in order to offer more remedial instruction to students suffering learning loss. But they’ve been paying for those extra teachers from a one-time shot of federal COVID emergency aid, which will expire in 2024. Those teachers were going to get laid off anyway because increasing payroll without supplemental money isn’t sustainable.

Also, enrollment is down.