Dr. Marc Gaswirth, a retired public school administrator, has written extensively for nearly 50 years about public sector bargaining  and school human resources.  

The education establishment, with the exception of the 100+ districts expected to lose funding next school year, will loudly applaud Murphy’s proposed spending as a promise fulfilled. This may be wishful thinking in terms of the expected outcomes.

Putting aside all the political happy-talk, the additional funding is unlikely to move the performance level of students, especially in distressed districts, though it will likely mitigate staffing cuts in most of them.

Much of the aid will be used to respond to normal inflationary pressures and increased labor costs negotiated at the local level and mandated by state laws that drive up personnel costs, such as the recently enacted and enhanced teacher sick leave law, to name just one.

That law in particular not only has increased teacher absenteeism but also has exacerbated the substitute shortage when many districts are unable to find enough regular staff.

This budget, like so many others, is not just a spending plan but also a shell game that has far less to do with changing the education performance trajectory than covering the legacy of ongoing and unsustainable financial commitments, left largely ignored during budget deliberations, and paying political debts.

There are other undeniable elements, also largely political in nature, at play in the governor’s budget. 

He is fulfilling for the first time in recent memory an implied legal obligation to fully fund both the education formula and the annual public pension payment contribution while continuing to draw down from the healthy surplus the state now enjoys. If this trend continues, he will leave only a small cushion for his successor to use during more lean times that are certain to come.

The proposal to fully fund the governor’s education priorities will certainly boost his standing among the special interests that supported his candidacy for a second term and that elected primarily Democratic candidates in the 2023 legislative races.

Let’s also not forget, however, that there is another Murphy seeking political office this November. It should surprise no one that what increases the governor’s popularity also benefits and accrues to his wife, who is seeking the  Democratic nod for a United States Senate seat.

For all we know, the governor and the politically formidable New Jersey Education Association, which has yet to announce its preference in the primary race, have already reached a quid pro quo, given their close symbiotic relationship. 

It would be a betrayal of the highest order and the height of ingratitude and hubris for the NJEA not to endorse Tammy Murphy, since the governor has given nearly unqualified support for the union’s political goals since taking office in 2018.

Remaining in the governor’s good graces, despite the short time left in his second term, by supporting his wife’s first bid for elected office, would likely work more to the union’s advantage. This will be true even if Ms. Murphy’s chief opponent, United States Representative Andrew Kim, ultimately wins the contested party primary and goes on to defeat the Republican candidate in November.

Four more months remain before the budget must be finalized. While it is doubtful that the governor’s education funding proposal will change, the jockeying for special appropriations sought by legislators to pay for their local pet projects is just starting. This will raise the final FY 25 budget number and further drain the surplus.

The bottom line is that the proposed budget is a great development for most school boards, school employees and their unions, and public employee retirees. How it works out for many of the state’s students may be a different story.