A new report from Harvard University’s Center for Education Policy Research and Stanford’s Educational Opportunity Project measures how much learning loss students suffered in each state during COVID school closures and what leaders need to do to allow students to “catch up and to prevent the widened achievement gaps from becoming permanent,” especially once the federal emergency money runs out in eight months.

In the report, “The First Year of Pandemic Recovery: A District-Level Analysis,” New Jersey comes in for special mention as one of eight states with one of the largest drops in math proficiency. Along with Virginia, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Connecticut, Mississippi, Oregon, and Pennsylvania, NJ students lost “more than 70 percent of a grade level” in math.

Let’s look at the national landscape. In order to calculate state-by-state and district-by-district learning loss, the analysts used student outcomes on state standardized tests and, more importantly, proficiency levels measured by the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), which allows for a level playing field. (See here for NJER’s analysis of 2022 NAEP scores.)

The results show that, nationally, students are creeping back to pre-pandemic levels:

“Between 2019 and 2022, the average student in the 30 states lost 0.53 grade levels in math achievement and 0.31 grade levels in reading. In other words, during the pandemic, students missed out on half of a year’s typical learning in math and a third of a year in reading. Between 2022 and 2023, students recovered approximately one-third of the original loss in math (0.17 grade levels) and one quarter of the loss in reading (0.08 grade levels). Thus, although students have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels of achievement, progress is being made.”

“The gains from 2022 to 2023,” the report says, “are relatively large.”

It also breaks the data down by race, finding that while Black and Hispanic students declined more than white students during the pandemic, “Black students’ scores improved more from 2022-2023 than white and Hispanic students.”

There is other encouraging news: Students in Tennessee, Pennsylvania, and Mississippi improved in math more than a third of a grade level in a single year, a “remarkable achievement since it implies that the average student learned 133 percent or more of the typical learning over the academic year last year.” In reading, Mississippi and Illinois are stand-outs, with students making up much lost ground. (The averages mask some important caveats, which the authors point out: for instance, in Massachusetts it was wealthy students who made the most progress while the proficiency levels of some low-income district students dropped further. In addition, Mississippi and Tennessee are admired for their rigorous process of ensuring teachers are fluent in the science of reading.

Are the differences in recovery linked to how states spent their share of the $190 billion COVID emergency funds? No one knows for certain because there was so little federal guidance beyond “you have to spend 20% of your money on learning recovery.” (We do know that in states like Indiana, where the state education agency exercised careful oversight over spending, students made significantly more progress than laissez-faire states like New Jersey.)

But it’s not too late for New Jersey or other states to help students catch up or at least get close! The report concludes with four recommendations for American state and local agencies on how to use the remaining COVID money “wisely,” which will require governors and state legislators “to take a more active role if the recovery is to be completed successfully.”

Here are the four recommendations:

Be Honest With Parents:

This spring, schools should be required to inform parents if their child is below grade level in math or English to give parents time to enroll in summer learning before the federal relief expires. Studies have consistently shown that parents underestimate the impact of the pandemic on their children’s achievement. Parents cannot advocate effectively for their children’s future if they are misinformed.

Mandate Summer Learning Programs For All Students Who Sign Up”

Schools should expand summer learning seats this summer. States should require districts to set aside sufficient funds to accept all students who sign up. Research has shown that six weeks of summer learning produces the equivalent of a quarter of year of learning, especially in math. Programs which combine academic instruction with enriching activities, such as art, sports or outdoor activities will be most effective in drawing students to summer programming and ensuring regular attendance. However, district staff may be hard-pressed to plan both enrichment activities and academic instruction. That is why programs such as the Boston After-School and Beyond program allows organizations such as summer camps and zoos and science museums plan the enrichment activities, while the district plans the academic content. The school district offers financial incentives for such programs to make room in their schedules for academic programs. The school district provides the academic component (curriculum and even the instructors). It is a promising model that other districts seeking to expand summer learning opportunities should consider.

Take Advantage of the COVID Money Loophole:

Districts can extend the recovery efforts into the next school year by contracting for tutoring and after-school programs before September.

Even if districts maintain the same pace of academic recovery this year as they did last year, the recovery will not be complete by September. Although the federal relief dollars cannot be used to pay school employee salaries after September, they can be used to make payments on contracts that are signed before the deadline. Thus, the only way to use the federal dollars to extend the recovery into next year will be by contracting with external providers such as tutors, summer school and after-school programs. The federal guidance explicitly invites districts to apply for extensions to use the relief funds for such programs

Work Hard to Reduce Student Absenteeism:

Local government, employers and community leaders can help schools reduce student absenteeism, which has doubled since the pandemic. Elected officials, employers, and community leaders should launch public awareness campaigns and other initiatives to lower student absenteeism. Absent students not only miss out on learning time while they are out, but they also make it hard for teachers to keep the whole class moving when they return.